Agrifood systems are required for every human life on this planet. Everyone eats, most of us several times daily. As the global population expands to nearly 10 billion people by the year 2050, agriculture will need to adapt accordingly.
Unfortunately, food systems are one of the most exposed to climate change: biodiversity loss and extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, and natural disasters threaten crop yields, crop frequency (how often crops can be planted), and global food supply chains.
Food systems also drive transgressions of nearly every Planetary Boundary: they account for nearly one-third of global GHG emissions, are responsible for most land system change since the turn of the century, disrupt global nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and more.
While the consequences of these deleterious effects vary widely depending on the product and region, the underlying consequences of non-sustainable agrifood systems effectively imply that we are slowing - and potentially halting - our ability to grow the crops we need.
A rewired global economy will change this vicious cycle to a virtuous one. Agriculture offers an organic (pun intended) opportunity to align economic incentives with pragmatic changes to operate within our Planetary Boundaries.
THE TAKEAWAY
Food security could become a global emergency by 2050 due to a growing population and increasing pressure on agrifood systems.
Agrifood systems — both food production, and downstream systems to get food from farm-to-plate — are a major contributor to GHG emissions, and also exceptionally exposed to the effects of climate change.
The right combination of incentives and innovations could rewire our agricultural system to one that both mitigates climate change contribution and insulate it from climate change impacts.
(Almost) all food starts from soil
Whether you’re eating a leaf of raw lettuce plucked directly from the Earth or noshing on a hamburger, virtually every calorie we consume begins with a plant that grows from soil or, in the case of hydroponics, (~5% of global food production), water, light and nutrients that mimic what naturally occurs in soil.
Unfortunately, estimates suggest that more than half of the planet’s agricultural land - and the soil on it - is degraded. Why should we care?
What is degraded soil?
When soil is degraded, its chemical conditions have deviated from their optimal state. This has negative long-term consequences including:
Lower and/or Fewer Crop Yields: Less output per crop cycle, or needing to wait longer between crop cycles
Less Nutrient-dense Plants: Lower crop nutritional quality resulting from suboptimal soil chemistry/conditions
Increased Resource Intensity: Requiring more inputs (e.g., water) to grow/sustain
Fewer Ecological Co-Benefits: Less pronounced co-benefits of soil health such as Biodiversity or Carbon Capture
Healthy soil, by comparison, produces more resilient and nutrient-dense plants, produces more food (higher yields), stores more carbon (more carbon in the soil = less carbon in the atmosphere), retains more water (and therefore requires less irrigation), and increases biodiversity. That’s a win-win-win when it comes to:
Ensuring humans can eat, both now and in the future
Ensuring the economic viability of agrifood systems and the people they employ
Ensuring both 1 and 2 can continue despite a backdrop of increasingly volatile climate conditions that strain soil health and threaten agricultural production
Graphic from The Rewire, Data from: https://www.fao.org/3/cc2672en/cc2672en.pdf
What practices degrade our soil?
Conventional agriculture practices optimize for the highest yields possible in the short term, achieved via whatever means produce the greatest profit. This outcome is most commonly achieved through a combination of several methods listed below. In addition to soil degradation, these practices drive the "on-farm" GHG emissions which is 50% of emissions derived from agrifood systems. (see chart above)
Reversing the trajectory of soil health requires adopting regenerative practices
“Regenerative agriculture” refers to ecosystem-oriented practices that aim to promote healthy soil, drive crop resilience, increase biodiversity, conserve water, reduce pollution, and support farmers’ ability to produce sufficient food for our growing population.
Basic regenerative practices focus on improving soil health to encourage near-term productivity and long-term land vitality, for the benefit of both farmer and consumer. They also take into account site-specific conditions and objectives. But with “no strict rulebook,” transitioning a majority of global food producers to a regenerative approach feels daunting. Transitions always carry risk and cost, so the practices have to be made attractive enough in the short-term for farmers to make the transition.
Source: The Rewire
Conclusions: Can we rewire agrifood systems?
The negative impact of climate change on agriculture may force farmers’ hands in some geographies, where decreasing yields and land availability will demand behavior change. But free-market and policy incentives also must play a role if we are to achieve long-term food security. Policy and regulatory programs are critical, but they also tend to be long-in-coming. In the meantime, many promising economic opportunities are already emerging:
Tech innovation. in on-farm activities and food production processes hold promise in mitigating the impact of climate change on food systems, the impact of food systems on climate change, and in spurring economic opportunity. Trends include:
AI, robotics and data/analytics abound are aimed at reducing labor costs, improving irrigation efficiency, driving more precise (and therefore lesser) applications of fertilizer and herbicides, and minimizing crop loss due to insects or inclement weather.
Hydroponics and vertical farming offer more food production without more land and soil resources, especially in urban areas.
Alternative meats and cultivated proteins help respond to a growing demand for meat that is incompatible with decreased land availability (more than ¾ of all agricultural land is used for livestock!).
Supply chain and packaging innovations are too numerous to list, but it’s a safe bet that much of your food will be packaged in biodegradable seaweed or mycelium in the not-too-distant future.
Carbon market participation. regenerative agricultural practices increase carbon captured by soil, which make them a prime potential target for carbon markets. Although carbon market skeptics are wise to remain apprehensive, this could provide a key revenue stream for farmers who otherwise couldn’t afford the investments required to adopt regenerative practices.
Food waste reduction. About 20% of the food produced globally is wasted (although many sources suggest this number is closer to 30%, and the US - the world’s most egregious offender - wastes up to 40% of its food). Creative food rescue programs and new technologies can increase usable food supply without any additional production.
Innovations like these will help insulate our food systems from environmental and economic volatility, and make strides towards reducing agrifood systems’ impact on climate change. But they must be paired with regulatory changes, reliable data with consistent measurement, and regenerative practices.
Together these changes are essential if we want to feed a growing population in the next 20-30 years, make the most efficient use of the land and water resources on Earth, and avoid further transgression of nearly every Planetary Boundary.
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